Very different from destructiveness are certain deeply buried archaic experiences that often appear to the modern observer as proofs for man’s innate destructiveness. Yet a closer analysis can show that while they result in destructive acts, their motivation is not the passion to destroy. We have focused on crimes against persons or property where there is an identifiable victim. Each of these crime types, ranging from homicide to burglary, fit under the head of malum in se offenses. The Latin phrase translates to “inherently bad or evil” acts. The serious felonies—murder, rape, robbery, burglary, arson, larceny—are classified as evil by their very nature. Even if they are not crimes under the law, killing another without justification or excuse, raping, robbing, burglarizing, and stealing are bad. Our focus will now be on those acts that fall under the heading of malum prohibitum offenses—acts that are deemed wrong by the law. These are the so-called victimless crimes that violate them norms or threaten the perceived moral well-being of society. Vice crimes such as prostitution, drug abuse, and gambling tend to be consensual acts perpetrated by consenting adults and produce no immediate harm to anyone other than the active participants. Clearly, conceptual schema such as vice crimes, public order crimes, or malum prohibitum offenses can include a broad and diverse array of law violations. #RandolphHarris 1 of 24

Drug abuse violations, prostitution, gambling, liquor-law violations, drunkenness, disorderly conduct, vandalism, and vagrancy are grouped together under the heading of public order crimes. Homosexual acts, traffic offenses, and exhibitionism are also added to the list by some typologies scholars. These are the most pervasive and well documented of the public order crimes and thus have accumulated the best systematic documentation from criminal justice experts. In the deepest layers of experience, one magically seizes upon the life-force itself by shedding blood. It cannot be denied that blood vengeance and criminal law, bad as they are, also have a certain social function in upholding social stability. It is notorious that real or alleged atrocities can ignite the most intense rage and vengefulness. By destroying the one who committed the atrocity his or her deed is magically undone, and it prevents others from committing similar heinous acts. If people were not punished for their crimes, then society would become uncivilized and no one would be safe. If law enforcement is not allowed to equally enforce the law, then they should be abolished. No one should be made a target, while others get away with crimes, and the one who has to defend one’s self is the only one held responsible by law. Vengeance may be said to be a magic reparation; but even assuming that is so, why is this desire for reparation so intense? Perhaps man is endowed with an elementary sense of justice; this may be because there is a deep-rooted sense of “existential equality.” #RandolphHarris 2 of 24

It is difficult to pinpoint uniform legal definitions of a given form of public order crime. Public standards regarding the criminality of public order offenses exhibit enormous variation across geographic areas. The instances of legalized prostitution or drug use (medicinal or personal use in small quantities) that exist within the United States of America or in other countries as evidence to this effect. Moreover, a sampling of the criminal codes of jurisdiction that criminalize vice offense reveals that there exists a great deal of disagreement over what physical (actus reus) and mental (mens reus) criteria should comprise the legal definition. As such, we find that traditional sources such as the Model Penal Code or criminal law textbooks provide us little guidance in defining the parameters of the discussion. The Uniform Crime Reports (FBI, 2023) provide some relief in this regard. The data collection instrument for the UCR affords public order offenses a Part II offense designation There are twenty plus offenses, ranging from weapons violations to public order crimes such as vandalism that re afforded such a designation. These crimes are deemed less serious than the Part I offense but still worthy of systematic inquiry. The FBI provides law enforcement authorities with a generic set of legal definitions to assist them when categorizing their crime data. The definitions are intentionally vague but provide us with a sound departure point from which to proceed. #RandolphHarris 3 of 24

Prostitution or commercialized vice is defined as sex offenses of a commercial nature, such as prostitution, keeping a bawdy house, procuring, or transporting women, men, or children for immoral purposes. Attempts are included. This definition encompasses acts or attempted acts of solicitation on the part of the prostitute and client (id est, john), as well as the acts of pandering, transporting, and facilitation on the part of the pimp or madam. These acts can manifest themselves in several generic forms including street prostitution, bar (“b-girls”) or hotel prostitution, illicit massage parlors, escort services, or brothel prostitution. The UCR defines drug abuse violations a state and/or local offenses relating to the unlawful possession, sale, use, growing, and manufacture of narcotics drugs. The following categories are specified: opium or cocaine and their derivatives (morphine, heroin, codeine, fentanyl); marijuana; synthetic narcotics—manufactured narcotics that can cause true addiction (Demerol, methadone); and dangerous nonnarcotic drugs (barbiturates, Benzedrine). Fentanyl is a synthetic opioid that is up to 50 times stronger than heroin and 100 times stronger than morphine. Given their consensual nature (id est, victimless crimes), we cannot rely on victim reports (id est, National Crime Victimization Survey) for accurate data on the occurrence of public order crimes. The UCR represents the only national-level source of data on these crimes; and even this data source has its shortcomings. #RandolphHarris 4 of 24

The UCR treats all public order crimes as Part II offense. These offenses are viewed as less serious than the Part I offenses (murder, rape, et cetera) and result in the collection and release of far less detailed information—we are left with data on arrests and have no insight on the large number or reported offenses that go unsolved. This issue is particularly problematic for public order crimes because their consensual nature makes them prone to underreporting in the first place. Matters are further complicated by the fact that drug offenses in the first place. Matters are further complicated by the fact that drug offenses are processed at the federal level and thus beyond the reach of the UCR data. For data on federal offenses, we must turn to the Bureau of Justice Statistic’s annual report entitled, Compendium of Federal Justice Statistics. Every year in America, nearly 81,000 people are arrested from prostitution. Arrests trends reveal a sharp and steady increase from 1970 to 1983 (post WWII high of 125,600) and then steady decreases from that point through the end of the century. Given prostitution’s folklore status as the “world’s oldest profession,” one mut assume that the actual number of prostitution offenses is exponentially larger than indicated by arrests data. (However, agriculture has to be the World’s oldest profession. How else did Adam and Eve? They had to cultivate the Earth and farm.) #RandolphHarris 5 of 24

Nonetheless, it is estimated that there may be as many as 500,000 male and female prostitutes working in the United States of America in a given year. The actual number of offenses that are perpetrated by these sex workers is surely staggering given the fact that sexual exchanges represent a primary source of income for these individuals. This necessitates that as many as 1.5 million persons frequent prostitutes, spending an estimated $7 to $9 billion each year. There appears to be some hard data to support these figures. Survey research efforts show that 45 percent of non-college-educated men and 35 percent of college-educated males admit to paying for sex at least once in their lives. Clearly, the prostitute and the client have a vested interest in avoiding law enforcement. By their own admission, law enforcement authorities often turn a blind eye to the problem. Given the above facts and figures, it is entirely possible that tens of millions of acts of prostitution occur in this country each year. The incidence numbers further expand when one turns the attention to drug crime. Annual arrests for unlawful possession, sale, use, growth, and/or manufacture of illicit drugs far surpass 2 million. The National Household Survey on Drug Abuse (NHSDA) relies on sophisticated stratified, multistage area probability sample and door-to-door visits of tens of thousands of citizens. It provides population estimates of the nonmedicinal and/or illicit use of drugs, alcohol, and tobacco products for persons over the age of 12. #RandolphHarris 6 of 24

Approximately 40 percent (nearly 133 million Americans) had engaged in at least one lifetime episode of illicit drug use. Overall usage figures shrink to 11 percent (37 million) when the time interval is restricted to the past year and 7 percent (23 million) when the time interval is restricted to the past month. In terms of marijuana use alone, the report estimated that 34 percent or just under 113 million Americas, indicate at least one lifetime usage episode. What is more, 9 percent (30 million Americas) are estimated to have used marijuana at least once in 2022 and 5 percent 16.6 million were said to have used it in the past month. Drugs do not magically appear in the hands of wanton users. Instead, minor use and possession offenses are preceded by additional criminal acts (id est, manufacturing, transporting, and sales offenses). The Office of National Drug Control Policy (ONDCP) estimates that there are roughly 1.1 million hardcore heroin users in America. The average hardcore users is said to spend $200 a week on heroin (id est, five to ten bags). It is estimated that these persons account for 70 percent to 80 percent of all street-level heroin purchases or 12 metric tons of pure heroin each year. It is staggering to think of the number of production, smuggling, dealing, and use-related crimes that must occur to maintain the heroin supply chain. The numbers grow exponentially when one examines the cocaine problem where we find 5 million hardcore cocaine users and 500 metric tons consumed in the United States of America each year. #RandolphHarris 7 of 24

There were 107,375 drug-involved overdoses and drug poisoning deaths reported in the United States of America in the 12 month period ending in January 2022. A staggering 67 percent of those deaths involved synthetic opioids like fentanyl. Some of these deaths were attributed to fentanyl mixed with other illicit drugs like cocaine, methamphetamine, and heroin, with many users unaware they were taking fentanyl. Only two milligrams of fentanyl is considered a potentially lethal dose; it is particularly dangerous for someone who does not have a tolerance to opioids. Even a nickel bad of marijuana can be deadly these days. It is a drug. It is not cool. Just because “everybody does it” does not make it right, nor mean that you should. Given their status as consensual and victimless crimes, we often overlook the social consequences that go along with public order cries. At first glance, it would appear that these crimes produce no real social costs. On the surface, the prostitute, john, pimp, drug smuggler, drug dealer, and/or drug user victimizes no one but him or herself; however, the matter is not so simple. In addition to representing moral transgressions, these crimes often generate significant public health concerns (id est, the spread of injury/disease, addictions and violent crime). Vast resources of the U.S.A. criminal justice system are deployed each year to pursue, apprehend, and punish public order offenders. #RandolphHarris 8 of 24

Thus, when assessing the “social costs” of these crimes, officials often draw upon figures from the U.S.A. Department of State, Treasury, Education, Justice, Health, and Human Services, Veteran Affairs, and Transportation to broaden the scope of the issues to include the financial costs associated with the enforcement of laws, prevention and treatment efforts and lost income. It is estimated that the collective national drug control budget for the fiscal year 2022 was $39 billion. The federal government has enlisted more than a dozen federal agencies to address drug misuse and its effects. Alcohol and drug misuse and related disorders are major public health challenges that are taking an enormous toll on our society. Recently more than 27 million people in the United States of America reported that they are using illicit drugs or misusing prescription drugs, and nearly a quarter of adults and adolescents reported binge drinking in the past month. The annual economic impact of substance misuse is estimated to be $249 billion for alcohol misuse and $193 billion for illicit drug use. Americans are spending $150 billion to purchase illegal drugs each year, and this includes cannabis, cocaine, heroin, and methamphetamine. The value of life lost due to overdose deaths was $480.7 billion. Opioid use disorder accounted for $471.0 billion. Almost $35 billion was spent on health care and opioid use disorder. There are other more alarming problems that stem from these offenses, most notably their tendency to generate violence and injuries. #RandolphHarris 9 of 24

Drug use is directly and indirectly responsible for 11.8 million deaths each year. Smoking, alcohol and drug use is an important risk factor for early death: 11.4 million die prematurely as a result each year. Over 350,000 die from overdoses (alcohol and illicit drug use disorders) each year. A longitudinal study of heroin addicts revealed that nearly half had died before reaching the age of 60; and a study of intravenous drug users found one in five to be infected with HIV. In the United States of America, estimates suggested that Drug-related problems (DRPs) accounted for 17 million emergency department visits and 8.7 million hospital admission annually. When focusing more narrowly on violent crime victims, research shows that 40 percent of the persons admitted into the hospital claim that their attacker was high on drugs or alcohol when the crime took place. The situation was no better for prostitutes. Studies indicate that the violent victimizations are commonplace for street walkers. Even prostitutes who do not walk the streets are subject to a high level of violent victimization—it was found that nearly half of the 115 call girls surveyed had been victimized while on the job. An analysis of arrests statistics reveal that vice arrests nearly quadrupled over the past 20 of the twenty first century. In 2022, 2 million people were arrested from drug abuse violations, approximately 1.6 million were arrested for driving under the influence; 1.5 million arrested for simple assault, and 1.4 million arrested for larceny-thefts. #RandolphHarris 10 of 24

The states with the most arrests in 2022 were Texas, Tennessee, North Carolina, Georgia, Louisiana, Missouri, Wisconsin, South Carolina, Ohio, and Indiana. Of course, California is the most populous state, but violent crime is still disproportionately high. The state is home to about 12 percent of the U.S.A. population, but is also the site of about 14 percent of all violent crimes. Despite a greater concentration of serious crimes, the state has a lower incarceration rate than most states. There are just 424 adults in California state and federal prisons for ever 100,000 residents 18 and over, below the 568 per 100,000 average across all states. The Uniform Crime Report reveals that public order arrest rates are much higher in urban areas than suburban or rural locales. For example, the urban arrest rate for drug crime was 629.1 per 100,000 inhabitants. This compares to rate of 446 in suburban areas and 390.8 in rural counties. The urban arrest rate for prostitution was 42.2 compared to 6.2 in suburban areas and 0.9 in rural communities. The considerations offered thus far seem to support the view that the passion for violence is so deep-seated that one must think of it as being present in all men. While it is indeed widespread, there are great differences in degree, up to the point that certain cultures and individuals seem to have only minimal traces of it. There must be factors that explain the difference. One such factor must be scarcity versus abundance. Also, there are people who have a thirst for violence, while others do not. Passivity of the mind can also be a factor. #RandolphHarris 11 of 24

Passivity of the mind is a condition engendered by a wrong concept of the important place of the mind in the life surrendered to the ultimate concern: for obeying it. The ultimate concern likes people who have an educated mind. The greater the brain power, the great the use the ultimate concern can make of it, provided it is submissive to the truth. Ture, the cause of passivity of mind sometimes lies in the thought that the working of the intellect is a hinderance to the development of the divine life in the self-actualized. However, the fact is, that the non-working of the brain hinders, the psychopathic working of the brain hundgers, but the normal and pure working of the brain is essential and helpfyl for cooperation with the ultimate concern. The effect of passivity of the mind is usually seen in inactivity when there should be action, but it may also be seen in over-activity beyond control—as if a suddenly released instrument broke forth into ungovernable action. It can result also in hesitation, rashness, indecision, unwatchfulness, lack of concentration, lack of judgement, and bad memory. Passivity does not change the nature of a facuty but it hinders its normal operation. In the case of passivity hindering the memory, the person will be found looking outside onself for every possivle assistant to memory until one becomes a veritable slave to notebook and helps, which may fail at a critical moment. With this comes also passivity of the imagination, which places the imagination outside personal control and at the mercy of psychopaths who flash to it what they please One danger is to take these visions and call them “imaginations.” #RandolphHarris 12 of 24

The passive state can be produced without stooping to crystal gazing. “Crystal gazing” is the practice of starting into a crystal ball or similar object for a prolonged period; the natural vision is dulled, and deceiving spirits can then present anything to the mind. In pure inactivity of the mind, the mind can be used at the will of the person, but in psychopathological passivity of the mind the person is helpless, and one “cannot think!” As if one’s mind were bound and held by an iron band, one feels a weight or pressure on one’s head. Underlying self-creativity and growth is one of the structural polarities of being, the polarity of dynamics and form. Dynamics impels a formed reality to break out of its form, to go beyond itself, and to develop into a new reality. Form is the polar counterpart of dynamics. It makes the thing what it is, tends to keep it static, but then determines the new reality which emerges under the pressure of dynamics. The dynamics-form polarity is actualized in the life functions of growth (the non-spiritual dimension) and self-creativity (the spiritual dimension). However, the old form may stifle or the new form may not be reached, and so the whole creative process is subject to the ambiguity of destruction. The receptive function of culture is called theoria. Theoria is the act of looking at the encountered World in order to take something of it into the centered self as a meaningful, structured, whole. As an example, we can cite language: The word is the bearer of meaning; therefore, language is the first result of the self-creation of life under the dimension of spirit. #RandolphHarris 13 of 24

The instruments of theoria are cognitive concepts and aesthetic images, each of which mirrors a fragment of the universe of meaning. The true and the beautiful are received through theoria which prolongs the grasping function of the word. However, as man’s spirit seizes reality, simultaneously he shapes it. Upon learning to speak, man fashioned tools. This primeval technical act is continued in the active function of culture termed praxis. Technology controls the World of nature, but praxis is the whole of cultural acts of centered personalities who as members of social groups act upon each other and themselves. Praxis operates in the personal-communal area and sees to procure individua and social good. Every cultural creation, whether it results from theoria or praxis, comprises three elements: subject matter (Inhalt), form (Form), and substance (Gehalt). The subject matter can be almost anything, but it is the form which is culturally decisive, in that form makes the creation what it is—an essay, a poem, or a law. Substance is described as the soil out of which a cultural creation grows. Substance is the underlying power of meaning, the ultimate concern which inspires the creative spirit and imparts significance to the cultural production. Subject matter is the accidental, substance is the essential, and form is the mediating element. Readers of George Herbert Mead will recall his distinction between the “me” and “I” phase of the self in personality development and social interaction. Looking at the elements of competence, three correspond roughly to the “me” phase and three to the “I” phase. #RandolphHarris 14 of 24

Me: Intelligence, empathy, judgment. I: Health, autonomy, creativity. The former refer to the vested and organized experience of the community as incorporated within personal conduct; the latter, to the active, assertive, and emergent features of human behavior, not reducible to standard roles in conventional situations. However, while Mead, like Dewey, relied heavily upon biological explanation for the impulsive and unpredictable character of human development, it had nonetheless been his intention to show the emergence of novel identities within the process of interaction. The concepts of interpersonal autonomy and interpersonal creativity may help to complete his task. In any social act—any episode of interaction—all six capacities are and must be employed, though their prominence varies from phase to phase. The cultural anthropologists have offered many attempts to classify the full range of human culture. These range from the classic division into technology, social organization, and ideology through Lowie’s “universal pattern of culture” and Malinowski’s six-category analysis of institutions, to the extremely elaborate Yale cross-cultural index. It seems significant that the classical tripartite scheme can be detected underlying each of its more sophisticated successors. From quite a different angle, this old division seems to gain a vague additional warrant from Morris’ division of the study of meaningful verbal relationships into semantics, syntactics, and pragmatics. #RandolphHarris 15 of 24

Considering the fondness of Western thinkers for indicating completeness by schemes of three elements and opposition by schemes of two, it is difficult to distinguish chicken from egg in trying to account for the recurrence of such schemes, id est, do they describe reality, or is social reality not the precipitate of such linguistic constructions? Probably neither metaphysics nor intellectual history has to be called on for defense of either the number or order of the elements of competence, however intriguing it is to speculate about their resemblance to previous schemes. Health and intelligence refer to the factual World of physical events and overt experience; both principally afford rational and efficient manipulation of the objects of the environment. Empathy and autonomy, by contrast, have to do with the relationships of selves and others, not as objects, but as human subjects with whom each person is engaged in the plots of the human drama. Judgment and creativity refer to the symbolized realm of not-present relationships, to the extent that these can be distinguished from the social and instrumental realms of immediate experience. As mentioned in past reports, the six elements of competence (health, intelligence, empathy, autonomy, judgement, and creativity) were arrived at principally through reflection upon previous research and upon the observable content of interpersonal behavior, and not from play with hyper-abstractions. #RandolphHarris 16 of 24

 If further abstraction, however, could demonstrate the completeness of a scheme that is made open-ended by the inclusion of creativity as its final element, then it would seem logical to suppose that our list of six would be lengthened by the addition only of subcategories, rather than by the addition of a seventh or eighth component. With regard to order, the list is thought to proceed from the most given to the least given features of any interpersonal performance. Also, as will be seen in ensuing reports, the order adopted is cognate with an order which appears not only empirically convenient in presenting types of family agencies and types of play, but also productive of further useful meditation about reciprocal implications. It would deprive the reader of some pleasant speculation to explore these exhaustively here; we prefer only to suggest the avenues which may be used to order and traverse the bast territory confronting us. It appears to us that a community which organizes its activity so that it maximizes the number of healthy, intelligent, self-directing citizens, capable of viewing situations from perspectives other than their own, of weighing alternatives and making decisions, of defining new goals and inventing ways of achieving them, is in fact a democratic community and is producing members who can sustain it against all more pessimistic theories of human nature and the social order. #RandolphHarris 17 of 24

Tomorrow’s Euro-army will sit on a gigantic economic base, the second leg of the power triad. Gross figures for the EC, even without adding its twelve members, are huge. With a population of 446.8 million inhabitants, it boats a gross national product of USD $16.6 trillion, America’s GDP is USD $23.32 trillion, and is nearly four times that of Japan’s USD $4.941 GDP, and is slightly less than China’s USD $17.73 trillion. In aggregate, the EC nations account for 20 percent of World trade, more than the U.S.A.’s 8.1 percent, and more than China’s 15 percent. As with military matters, Europe’s key financial decisions will once more be made in Berlin, in the German finance ministry and the Deutschebank, a dominance reflecting economic realities. Germany is the fourth largest economy in the World with a combined value of  $4.5 trillion, which is more than France’s economy of $2.94 trillion. West Europeans, led by France urge a stronger, tighter EC federation on the assumption that it will limit Germany’s freedom of action. However, the stronger and more centralized the EC itself becomes as it acquires a common currency and central bank and takes on the role of environmental policeman or policewoman, the stronger, not weaker, the influence of a combined Germany over the whole European apparatus. Germany established a special USD $106 billion fund to beef up the Bundeswehr. Germany has a military of nearly 200,000 soldiers. America has 482,416 active soldiers. China has 2 million active personnel and is the largest army in the World. Russia has a military of 147,000 men.  #RandolphHarris 18 of 24

The emergence of this Germano-centric system is, however, only part of an unfolding Ost-Strategie of breathtaking scope. For the emerging economic strategy being developed by governments and corporations in the EC is to take advantage of inexpensive labor in Czechoslovakia, Hungary, Poland, and other East European countries and use it for low value-added mass production. The goods produced are not primarily for the East Europeans, but are intended for export to Western Europe. Smokestacks in the East, computers and consumer goods in the West—with a unified Germany acting now not merely as the core of the Western community, but as manager for this entire continental system. Execution of this broad economic strategy, which shifts hegemonic power over Eastern Europe from the Soviets to the West Europeans and Germans, will occupy the decades immediately ahead, and will be fraught with upsets and difficulties. This fast-crystallizing Ost-Strategie started beefing up after Russians invasion of Ukraine. There is also hopes that deals can be made with U.S.S.R. that will soften its resistance to the Germanization of the East. This will depend on internal politics within the Soviet Union, as well as on unpredictable events in China and Asia generally. Therefore, there is so much more to be worried about besides just climate change. There is a major power shift going on in the World. It is believed that China’s GDP will surpass America’s in 2035, and India will overtake U.S.A. economically by 2075. As a result, America needs to get their economy together and stop sending jobs overseas and buy America cars, meat, produce and more. #RandolphHarris 19 of 24

The Ost-Strategie also presupposes tht the EC itself can deliver on its glowing promises for Western Europe—a 7 percent growth rate, and 5 million new jobs in the twelve member nations. More efficient production. Enhanced competitivity of World trade. Higher profits. Yet EC planning is still heavily premised on obsolete notions about economies of scale, which apply far more readily to smokestack manufacture than to advanced economies organized around information and service activities. Moreover, while the new system for wealth creation thrives on (and generates) heterogeneity, emphasizing customization and localization of production, segmentation of markets and de-massification of finance, of EC steamroller, despite rhetoric to the contrary, is intended to flatten out differences. The Eastern end of the strategy faces major problems as well. To begin with, it takes for granted political stability in the quasi-colonies. Yet the rush toward mass democracy, with parliaments and multiple parties, does not guarantee sausages or ham on the table. If desperate economic conditions do not significantly improve quickly, the infatuation with parliaments, parties, and voting could degenerate into chaos, charges of corruption, extraparliamentary terrorism, and a return before World War II—perhaps with the support of foreign investors for whom stability and order is a paramount requirement. #RandolphHarris 20 of 24

After the initial euphoria about capital from the West, Eastern Europeans, on the morning after, will increasingly resent their new-style colonial status. Resentment will boil over into resistance. Economic scarcity will be blamed on foreign investors, “imperialists,” and local scapegoats. Initial emergency loans will be followed by further emergency loans to keep the economies afloat. Down the line will come demands for loan-repayment moratoria and cancelations. Even if none of this comes to pass, the root assumption of the Ost-Strategie, the importance of inexpensive labor, needs to be severely questioned. Inexpensive labor, as we have seen, is now increasingly expensive. With labor costs declining as a component of total cost, the savings will be minimal except in the most backward industries. Similarly, as we have seen, slow economies cannot plug into fast economies easily. In Poland, until recently, it could take a month to six weeks merely to transfer funds from one bank to another. The entire Eastern metabolism is slower than that required by the West, and its electronic infrastructure is virtually nonexistent. All this will make the Ost-Strategie more costly than it would appear. Finally, if a significant amount of smokestack work is actually transferred to the East, West European governments can expect increased pressure from their own blue-collar trade unions, increased demands for social benefits and protectionism at home. #RandolphHarris 21 of 24

In Germany, in particular, this implies growing support for the political opposition. Like the neo-Nazi right, Social Democrats will sound nationalist themes in attacking the transfer of jobs to “non-Germans” who work for less than union wages. Greens, meanwhile, will oppose the transfer of pollution to a region that is already one of the most pollute to a region tht is already one of the most polluted on Earth. Should a Social Democrats fear its impact on employment, and the Greens are larded with Luddites and technophobes. A European Bank for Reconstruction Development has been created with funds supplied by many Western nations and Japan. Under the innovative leadership of Jacques Attali, the EBRD could lay down key beachheads for technological and economic advance in Eastern Europe. However, it will not be so easy. Commercial and political ardor for the Ost-Strategie will therefore cool in the coming decade as Europe’s deep problems begin to emerge. Europe has enormous wealth, but—so far—a questionable strategy for how to use it. In America, the state is strengthening regulations and oversight of financial institutions, making steps to contain disruptive financial gambling. Transactions with structured products have been put under stricter control than before. Lessons from the 2008 financial crisis can provide insights for achieving a low-carbon recovery after the COVID-19 crisis, and specific measures have been proposed, for example, setting electricity consumption standards for infrastructure projects to reduce electricity consumption induced by the fixed capital formation, and attaching energy efficiency labels and carbon footprint labels to metal products (exempli gratia, iron and steel, aluminum and fabricated metal products), large quantities of which are used for fixed capital information. #RandolphHarris 22 of 24

The breakout of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic in December 2019 caused great damage to the global economy, leading to the deepest recession since World War II.  We are still going through the aftermath of the actions taken to avoid total economic catastrophe: The Federal Reserve saved the bond market, and the federal government doled out trillions in spending to keep American households afloat while their economy was locked down. These measures avoided severe injury to the economy, but the Fed has only just begun to deal with the historic levels of inflation. There are also growing fears of another recession on the horizon. The COVID Recession taught people to anticipate recessions. If you have been watching the market since around 1996, you will notice that there tends to be a recession every 5 to 10 years, and the reasons vary from bad investments, supply shock, war, outsourcing, terrorism, pandemics and possibly even elections. With current geopolitical tensions, energy market imbalances, persistently high inflation, rising interest rates and power shifts, people fear a recession, but it is no reason to panic. Many companies are discouraged from taking on debt to invest in expanding their businesses because of high interest rates. Elevated rates also reduce consumer spending, easing demand pressures that have contributed to rising prices. However, inflation and rising interest rates have not yet dragged the U.S.A. economy into the red. #RandolphHarris 23 of 24

 In addition to modest first-quarter GDP growth, the U.S.A. added 236,000 jobs in March, and the unemployment rate remains historically low at just 3.5 percent. However, investors should continue to monitor the labor market s interest rates rise. The probability that a recession will happen within the next 12 months is about 99 percent. The banking crisis has increased the risk of recession Concerns about financial stability could force the Fed to drop its inflation-fighting efforts prematurely. However, others maintain that there is only a 35 percent chance of a recession in 12 month, but even that was revised upward from the bank’s 25 percent figure in light of the banking upheaval. Tightening credit conditions could be the main factor that may push the economy to contract. So, it may actually be a good time to buy  house, as long as your employment is secure and recession proof because when lending requirements become more stringent, one may not qualify for a loan, but holding off on a house could give one more time to save and pay off some debt. If the federal reserve hies interest rates two or even three more times as the banking turmoil in the United States of America and Europe cause credit conditions to tighten significantly, the will send the U.S.A. into a recession within the next few months. The red-hot labor market would loosen quickly, and layoffs would be widespread. If the recession does not happen this summer, then there is  30 percent chance it will happen in the second half of 2024, but people think with prices being so high on consumer goods and services, it may happen before Christmas, but there is only a 50 percent chance—depending on who you ask. It sounds inevitable. #RandolphHarris 24 of 24